Forecast of main pest occurrence trends in the middle and late cotton in 2008

Forecast of main pest occurrence trends in the middle and late cotton in 2008

On July 14-15, 2008, the National Agricultural Technology Center held a conference on the occurrence of major diseases and insect pests in autumn crops in Henan Province. According to the comprehensive analysis and forecast of cotton pests and diseases, cotton growth, variety pest resistance and meteorological conditions, it is expected that the major pests of the middle and late cotton crops this year will be moderate (Grade 3), with an area of ​​310 million mu. Among them, 260 million mu of insect pests such as cotton bollworm, cotton aphid, cotton leafhopper, and whitefly have occurred. Fifty-billion-odd diseases such as wilt disease and bell disease have occurred. The occurrence of diseases such as cotton blind borer and blight disease is heavier than the previous year.

First, the trend

1. Helicoverpa armigera: The third generation of bollworms occurred in most of Shandong Province (level 5), occurred in the south of the east and west of the mountains, in the south of Hebei, and in the north of Henan (level 4). Most of Tianjin, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Hebei and Henan Regional medium (level 3) occurred, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Sichuan lighter (Grade 2) occurred; it is expected to produce 45 million mu. The values ​​of the second generation of adult worms and the third generation of the average number of eggs accumulated in each area are as follows:

province

Adult emergence

Compared with previous years

An average of 100 eggs accumulated

Hebei

Shandong

Henan

Tianjin

Shanxi

Shaanxi

Liaoning

Anhui

Jiangsu

Hubei

Jiangxi

Hunan

Sichuan

Xinjiang

July 20 - August 1

July 21 - August 1

July 15-25

July 25 - August 3

July 18 - August 3

July 18-30

August 3-10

July 18-25

July 16-27

July 6-21

July 10-23

July 10-22

July 14-29

July 31 - August 5

2 days late

2 days late

1 day early

3 days late

3 days early

2 days early

2 days early

2 days early

similar

2 days late

3 days early

1 day early

2 days late

2 days early

300 capsules

300 capsules

100 capsules

150 capsules

50 tablets

150 capsules

5 tablets

50 tablets

50 tablets

100 capsules

60 capsules

100 capsules

130 capsules

30 capsules

The fourth generation of H. armigera occurred in eastern Hubei, southern Hunan, and Jiangxi (Grade 4), Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, Henan, Hubei Jianghan Plain, northern Hunan and other regions (level 3), Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan Lighter (Grade 2) occurs; larvae occur in the late August to mid-September, with an estimated 40 million acres.

2. Cotton aphid: Aphids in Hebei, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu (4) occurred, Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, southern Xinjiang and other places (grade 3) occurred, Shandong , Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan lighter (Grade 2) occurred; the peak period from mid-July to mid-August is expected to occur 47 million mu.

3. Cotton leafhoppers: Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Xinjiang, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu (E.4), Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, southern Xinjiang, and other cotton (medium 3); Shandong, Tianjin, Sichuan is light (Grade 2); its peak period is from mid-July to mid-August, and 36 million mu is expected to occur.

4. Cotton Blindness: Hebei, Tianjin, Henan, Shanxi, Anhui, and Jiangxi (4th), Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan (3rd), Xinjiang, Shandong (Grade 2); Occurrence In late July-September, it is estimated that 38 million mu will occur.

5. Bemisia tabaci: Severe (Grade 4) in northern Hubei and Hunan, moderate (Grade 3) in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, southern Hunan, and mild (Grade 2) in other cotton areas; By early September, an area of ​​18 million mu is expected to occur.

6. Fusarium wilt: Occurrence of heavier (Grade 4) occurrence in Hebei Province; medium (Grade 3) occurrences in Tianjin, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Xinjiang, and peak episodes of severe symptoms from August to September after continuous rain. It is estimated that 30 million mu will occur.

7. Other pests: Spodoptera litura in Hunan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu (4), moderate Hubei (Grade 3), cotton horses in Hebei (3rd), and boll diseases in Hebei and Shanxi. Level 4) occurred in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Xinjiang, and occurred moderately to light (level 2-3); cotton leaf blight was common in Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi, and Jiangxi; it is estimated that each of the above-mentioned pests and diseases will have an area of ​​about 500 Million acres.

Second, forecast basis

1. The base number of cotton bollworm is stable, and the base number of sucking pests and wilt is high.

This year the second generation of H. armigera occurred only in northern Henan, southern Hunan, and Xinjiang. The cotton area was heavier than last year. Most of the remaining cotton areas were lighter than last year. The total amount of total host plant residues compared to the same period last year was in Henan and southern Shanxi. Xinjiang, and other places were respectively 39.65%, 39.43%, and 20.54%, while Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Sichuan, and other places were respectively 31.10%, 34.43%, 46.7%, 80.49%, 0.98%, and 49.70%.

Fuxi has a total of 100 buckwheat tassels in the northern cotton regions of Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and other regions. The number of serious ploughs is more than 10,000 heads, and Xinjiang has 86,000 heads. The cotton aphids in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hubei, Jiangxi and other places have a population of about 100 insects and about 10 dozens of insects; the number of planted plants is generally 10% to 30%, and the fields are severe. 80%. Cotton leafhoppers commonly occur in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, and other regions, with 100 strains ranging from tens to several hundred strains, and strains with 15% to 38%. Fusarium wilt has occurred in most of the country's cotton districts. The old cotton areas that have been planted for many years have been particularly serious. The sick field rates in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Tianjin, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui are 10% to 40%. 70%; The diseased plants were mostly 7%-10%, and the high ones were 50%.

2. The ecological conditions in the field are conducive to the occurrence of various pests

According to statistics, in 2008, the country's cotton planting area was 81.79 million mu; in which the planting area of ​​transgenic insect-resistant cotton was 59.58 million mu, and the area of ​​cotton planting in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin accounted for more than 90%. Insect-resistant cotton is beneficial to sucking pests such as aphids, cotton leafhoppers, cotton blind borers, and whiteflies, and the insect resistance is generally reduced in the middle and late stages of cotton growth. In addition, the difference in insect resistance among different breeds is favorable to three. Four generations of cotton bollworm occur. In addition, most of the country’s autumn crops in the cotton region are growing well, and the cotton-field intercropping area accounts for a certain percentage, which provides a good environment for the occurrence, transfer, and reproduction of pests such as cotton bollworm, cotton aphid, and whitefly.

3. Meteorological conditions are favourable for the occurrence of dampness pests in most cotton areas

According to the forecast of the National Meteorological Center, from July to August, the precipitation in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin was relatively high, of which Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were more than 20% in the north, which was unfavorable to cotton bollworm, cotton aphid, and cotton leafhoppers. However, it is beneficial to the occurrence of hazards such as cotton-sucking bugs and blight diseases such as cotton budworm and blight. Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang has less precipitation, and it is more likely to be exposed to droughts and droughts, which is beneficial to the occurrence of cotton aphid and cotton leafhoppers.

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