2009 International Commercial Vehicles 5 Wind Direction

I. Negative year-on-year growth

Analyzing the sales performance of the year is inseparable from the year-on-year increase. The year-on-year growth of the global commercial vehicle industry in 2009 has been “negative” shrouded. Especially in the first half of the year, the global commercial vehicle market can be described as overcast.

From January to June 2009, new registered commercial vehicles in 29 European countries (EU, Norway, and Switzerland) decreased by 37.2% year-on-year to only 883,301, compared to 1,407,103 in the same period of 2008; India registered 37,380 new heavy trucks in the first half of 2009. Vehicles, a decrease of 54,760 from the same period of 2008; South America's heavy truck market in the first half of the year is also very sluggish, sales of heavy trucks in Brazil was only 28,930 units, a decrease of 24% over the same period in 2008; January-June 2009, the entire North American heavy truck The sales volume was 53,884 vehicles, a drop of 43% from the 93,951 vehicles in the same period of 2008.

Fortunately, this kind of haze weather that began in 2008 began to appear in the third quarter of 2009. Although the European commercial vehicle market continued to decline for 19 months in November 2009, the decline is gradually narrowing in terms of trends. Since the decline of 42.4% in April 2009, the decline has gradually decreased in the following months, and further reduced to 15.9% in November. The North American market has experienced a rebound rally. Affected by the impending implementation of the EPA2010 standard, in October 2009, the North American heavy truck market was blowout. The orders of major truck manufacturers reached 21,792 units, with sales volume up 117% year-on-year and 104% month-on-month. As the price of heavy trucks that meet the EPA 2010 standard will increase by US$10,000, North American users will have advanced consumption. However, this episode was “a flash in the pan” and North American heavy trucks returned to trough in November 2009. Truck manufacturers’ orders fell by 50% from the previous quarter, and their sales volume was only 10,550, down 7% year-on-year. Some analysts pointed out that although the market has improved, but to return to normal levels depends on the performance of the market in 2010. Unlike passenger cars, the consumption of commercial vehicles is basically linked to the national economy. With the performance of major economies still weak, the restart of the commercial vehicle market still requires patience.

Second, business improvement

Although the sales of commercial vehicles in the world showed negative growth year-on-year, from the perspective of several major multinational commercial vehicle manufacturers, due to the narrowing down of the year-on-year decline in the market, the operating conditions of various companies have improved to varying degrees.

From January to September 2009, Scania's operating income was SEK 1,042 million (approximately 102 million euros). Its CEO Leif Ostling said: "Operating income has not declined sharply. This is due to stable service income. And our efforts to control costs.” Since June 2009, Scania has implemented a four-day work schedule for 12,000 employees and has laid off employees. This saves Scania nearly SEK 300 million in costs. A series of measures such as the reduction of staff training expenses effectively prevented the decline of profits.

Levo Johansson, CEO of Volvo, also expressed optimism about the market. He said: “Although profits in the third quarter of 2009 are still relatively low, the good news is that we have already seen signs of market growth. There are now many signs that the market has bottomed out. At the same time, the used car market in Europe began to recover, indicating that the truck market is moving in a virtuous direction.” Although orders are still relatively small, orders for Volvo Trucks have grown for the third consecutive quarter in 2009. The third quarter was an increase of 20% from the previous quarter. Compared with the second-quarter loss of SEK 5.57 billion, the third-quarter results have improved, which is better than the loss of SEK 3.33 billion.

Daimler's third-quarter earnings and cash flow were all better than previously expected, with quarterly revenue of 19.3 billion euros and pretax profit of 470 million euros.

Third, the global east

After the collapse of the largest commercial vehicle market in Europe and North America, global commercial vehicle companies have accelerated their pace of entering the emerging economies. China, India and Russia have become their most promising markets.

In 2009, the commercial vehicle market in China set off a joint venture and cooperation trend. Following the joint venture between Daimler and Foton, Mann entered Sinotruk as a shareholder; at the same time, the United States long head truck represented NC2 (a joint venture between Navistar and Caterpillar). The company also established a joint venture with Jianghuai Automobile; even if it is deeply bankruptcy-protected, GM will not forget the Chinese market and join hands with FAW to establish FAW-GM Light Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd.

In the Indian market, multinational commercial vehicle companies also staged a "staking their own horse" campaign. In December 2009, Indian media reported that Daimler is in talks with India's Bajaj Auto and TVS Group on the production of commercial vehicles in India. It plans to produce light and medium trucks in 2010 and heavy commercial vehicles in 2012.

At the same time, Mann's joint venture in India, Manfred, plans to increase production capacity to 24,000 units from 2009 to 2010. After establishing a joint venture company, VE Commercial Vehicles , with Eicher Automotive Co., the third-largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in India in 2008, Volvo used India as its export base for commercial vehicles.

Due to geographical advantages, Russia in Eastern Europe was once a strategic place for European commercial vehicle companies to achieve another growth, but the Russian market in 2009 did not bring them gratifying results. The market was depressed and high tariffs allowed them to re-examine the strategy in the Russian market, and to cultivate the market and localize production into new tactics. On November 24, 2009, Daimler signed a joint venture agreement with Russia's largest truck manufacturer, Kamaz, and the two parties will set up two joint ventures in Russia to produce light and heavy trucks, respectively. Previously, on January 19, 2009, the first Volvo heavy truck assembled in Russia was off the assembly line. Volvo set up an assembly plant in Kaluga and plans to produce 10,000 Volvo heavy trucks and 5,000 Renault trucks per year.

Fourth, new energy

In 2009, the most popular word in the global automotive industry was new energy vehicles . In this energy revolution, it is also the mission of global commercial vehicle companies to provide users with greener, energy-efficient cars. The financial crisis did not allow commercial vehicle companies to reduce R&D investment in new energy vehicles . Instead, they believe that in the new round of competition, only companies that are leading in new energy technologies can win the market.

Volvo is currently implementing fourth-generation hybrid solutions for buses and trucks. In 2009, Volvo's new hybrid bus started operation in Gothenburg, Sweden. Volvo expects to begin mass production of hybrid buses by early 2010. In November 2009, the head of environmental affairs at Volvo Bus Company stated that the company is negotiating on the trial of hybrid buses in India.

Before 2011, Daimler plans to invest nearly 14 billion euros in researching environmentally-friendly drive control technologies, from natural gas to second-generation biodiesel, which are the focus of Daimler's research. Daimler's hybrid trucks have been put into the market early and more than 2,000 trucks are currently in use. The Daimler Freightliner hybrid truck also received more and more orders from the United States.

Ethanol can significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Scania has always considered this to be the most cost-effective renewable fuel. As a producer of ethanol buses, Scania has been developing ethanol fuel vehicles for nearly 20 years. Since 1989, a total of 600 ethanol-powered buses have been put into operation in Scania .

V. International unified standards

The decline in sales volume in 2009 has reduced the profits of global commercial vehicle companies, reduced disposable R&D funds, and increasingly stringent emission standards have made companies feel the pressure of technological upgrading. However, this is not the key. For commercial vehicle companies worldwide, what is most expected to be solved now is to formulate internationally uniform standards.

Daimuleka bus department head Andreas Renschler said: "The United States, Europe and Japan are the three major Daimler truck market, this market there are three kinds of three emission standards Daimler Trucks to enter these three markets need to be. Three kinds of tests to ensure that the vehicle meets three different regulations.For global truck companies, this means that Daimler needs to make three different improvements to the same engine, which takes three times longer, or even 3 times the cost."

Goran Simonsson, CEO of Volvo Central Europe, believes that in the past, the driving force for the development of new products was mainly the product life cycle, technological advancement and user demand. Now the power of product development has become to meet various emission-related regulations. He pointed out that there are three major problems in the global truck market: First, there is no international unified emission standard; Second, there is no international fuel standard; Third, there is no international coordination scheme for the use of alternative energy sources. These three issues require global truck manufacturers to face and solve them together.

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